Japan-US Tariff Talks Stall, Auto Industry Faces Risks

• Japan and the US remain divided on auto tariffs despite six rounds of talks.
• Experts warn US trade unpredictability could hurt Japan's economy.
• Ishiba fails to secure tariff relief; next meeting set for NATO summit.

Japan and the US remain divided on tariffs, with experts warning of risks to Japan’s economy and global stability. At the G7 summit, PM Ishiba urged Trump to review Japan’s tariffs during a brief meeting.

"There are still areas where our views do not align," Ishiba said after the meeting, noting that no comprehensive deal had been reached and declining to reveal specific points of disagreement. He said it is difficult to set a timeline, as national interests must be protected.

Ishiba and Trump met for the second time since February. Ishiba emphasized Japan’s commitment to boosting U.S. investment but Trump offered no relief on auto or other tariffs. Japanese car exports still face steep U.S. tariffs, with no progress after six rounds of talks. The U.S. remains Japan’s top car market, and Nomura warns auto tariffs could severely hit Mazda and cut Toyota’s profits by 30 percent. Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Japanese consultancy Infinity LLC, warned that the earnings of Japanese automakers will deteriorate due to US tariff hikes, thereby affecting the Japanese economy.

"The targets and criteria of US tariffs could change arbitrarily, and the US tariff policy is inherently unpredictable," Tashiro said. "As a result, both foreign and domestic US companies will find it difficult to make reasonable business plans, and the global economy will face even greater uncertainty."

He noted that the international community widely believes the US' overuse of tariffs will harm all economies involved — and that, in the end, the United States itself will bear the consequences.

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Kazuyuki Hamada, an international political economist and Japan's former parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, said: "With the Upper House election fast approaching, the Japanese government had hoped to secure at least a partial rollback of the 25 percent auto tariffs imposed by Trump. …However, the 30-minute meeting ended in disappointment, yielding only an agreement to continue ministerial-level talks."

Despite Ishiba’s strong stance on the auto industry as Japan’s core interest, he failed to shift Trump’s position. Hamada noted concern over Japan’s poor grasp of U.S. politics, despite Akazawa’s six visits in two months.

"The fruitless outcome of this latest Japan-US summit will likely result in a harsh judgment from voters in the upcoming Upper House election. Ishiba is scheduled to meet Trump again at the NATO summit on June 24 — but unless Japan can prepare a compelling offer that truly grabs Trump's attention, it's unlikely anything will change," he said.