Shell Expects LNG Demand to Grow 60% by 2040, With Asia Driving the Boom

According to Shell's annual report released on Tuesday, worldwide demand for liquefied natural gas is projected to increase by approximately 60 percent by 2040, primarily fueled by economic expansion in Asia, the influence of AI, and initiatives to reduce emissions in heavy industries and transportation.

The global demand for natural gas keeps increasing as the world shifts towards more sustainable fuels. According to Shell's 2025 annual LNG outlook, industry predictions estimate LNG demand will rise to between 630 million and 718 million metric tons annually by 2040.

The most recent perspective from the biggest LNG trader globally is above the forecast from the previous year, which estimated global LNG demand in 2040 to be between 625 million and 685 million tonnes annually.

China's natural gas imports are expected to increase this year due to economic stimulus plans boosting industrial demand, although trade issues with the U.S. might limit growth.

Last year, China recorded natural gas imports, including pipeline deliveries, of 131.69 million tons, marking the highest level since at least 2013. According to its customs data, LNG accounted for 76.65 million tons of that total volume.

In India, the International Energy Agency predicts that natural gas usage will rise by 60 per cent from 2023 to 2030, leading to a doubling of the country's LNG import requirements, since domestic production is anticipated to increase much more gradually than demand.

Numerous LNG projects have encountered setbacks in the last two years because of geopolitical conflicts, regulatory challenges, workforce shortages, and supply chain issues, postponing the release of approximately 30 million tons of additional LNG supply, equal to India's LNG imports, until 2028.

Substantial increases in LNG supply are expected from the leading exporter, the United States, which could hit 180 million tons annually by 2030 and represent one-third of worldwide supply.

Analysts predict that alongside Qatar's extensive North Field expansion project expected to start in 2026, the United States and Qatar may account for roughly 60 percent of the world's LNG supply by 2035.