Thailand's Finance Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast to 2.1%

The finance ministry of Thailand revised its economic predictions downward from 3% to 2.1% this year because U.S. tariffs along with an international economic slowdown created negative impacts on Thailand's position as Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Pornchai Thiraveja, who leads the fiscal policy office at the finance ministry, announced at a press conference that export numbers provided vital support for Thai economic growth but they would reach only 2.3% this year compared to previous forecasts of 4.4% growth.

The experts made their forecasts one day after the Bank of Thailand released downgraded economic projections for this year together with back-to-back monetary rate reductions.

Thailand's 2.1% growth forecast is based on negotiations for a lower US tariff rate, according to the ministry. Thailand could face a 36% tariff on its exports to the United States if negotiations fail before the levies' moratorium expires in July.

Pornchai predicted that if the government increased its budget spending, growth could reach 2.5 percent this year.

Earlier on Thursday, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira stated that Thailand would seek tariffs similar to those of its trade competitors and would implement economic stimulus measures to boost growth.

The ministry reduced its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals, another key growth driver, to 36.5 million this year, down from 38.5 million previously.